Harris James Associates Economy – Closer Look by James Harris

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India Economic Growth - Harris James Associates Economy, A Closer Look
The central government budget which set the tone for reducing fiscal deficit and an unexpected increase in the policy rate to rein in inflation has convinced the markets and economists that India is on its way to having a robust economic growth. Industrial output also continued to grow at a fast pace in January as companies produced more cars and cement. In the fiscal year 2011 that ends in March 2011, GDP growth of 8.5% is achievable. Long-term predictions for the southwest monsoons are expected to be normal, giving a boost to agricultural production and domestic demand.
Harris James Associates believe strongly in the concept of economic and market-led research. This "top down" approach is aimed at identifying the most vibrant and promising market sectors in which to direct its considerable industry and company research capabilities. We believe in the long term growth and development of the global economy as the world's people strive for a healthier and higher standard of living, particularly in those emerging economies that account for fully half of the global population. While there are many and varied stumbling blocks on the path of global economic and social progress, Harris James Associates recognizes that there are always sectors that exhibit superior potential in the dynamics of global development.
India Inflation
Inflation in India has been surging, driven by a low base and high food prices as the weakest monsoon rains in 37 years last year hurt farm output. Inflation running at 8.5% may have peaked and it is expected to ease by April as the winter-sown crop comes to market. The year-on-year inflation rate for food articles was 16.22% in the week ending March 13, far above the comfortable zone for the central bank and the government. In order to manage the inflationary expectations, the central bank increased overnight lending and borrowing rates by 0.25 percentages point each, making it one of the first major central banks to raise rates. The central bank further announced that it would continue to roll back its loose monetary policy to manage prices, as the country can't have sustained strong growth with high inflation.
We expect a 0.25-percentage-point rate hike in mid-April and another increase of one percentage point through March 2011.
The rebound in industrial activity also saw a surge in India's exports for the third month running in January. Exports in January rose 11.5% from a year earlier to $14.34 billion, after having increased 9.3% to $14.61 billion in December. Imports increased 35.5% in January to $24.70 billion while oil imports rose by 56% to $7.05 billion. Non-oil imports, a barometer of investment activity, grew 28.8% to $17.65 billion.